Ranking non-Scheffler options to win PGA Championship

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – Let’s face it: Scottie Scheffler is probably going to win the 107th PGA Championship.

The oddsmakers and the eye test are aligned after 54 holes, as Scheffler used a torrid close to his third round to distance himself from the pack at Quail Hollow Club. Trailing by two shots stepping to the 14th tee, Scheffler played the final five holes in 5 under and now holds a three-shot lead over Alex Noren and sits at least four shots clear of everyone else.

Scheffler started the day at +210 at FanDuel Sportsbook and got out as high as +350 in the middle of the third round as players like Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm got off to faster starts. But when it was all said and done and Scheffler rolled in a 9-foot birdie putt on No. 18 to head into Sunday at 11 under, his odds had plummeted to -450 – implying an 82 percent chance at victory.

So knowing that a Scheffler win is by far the most likely scenario, there are six other players who will tee off with odds below +10000 to lift the Wanamaker Trophy. Let’s rank the other possibilities – with an eye on some longshot odds value in the event that things get a little weird Sunday at Quail Hollow.

J.T. Poston (+3000): Don’t be afraid to sprinkle a little on the North Carolina native, who is showing up at a major for the first time in his career. In 17 prior major starts, Poston has finished no better than T-30 at the 2024 Masters. But he’s feeding off some good vibes in his home state, not far from where he went bogey-free en route to his maiden TOUR win in Greensboro, and he’s got the hottest putter of any of the leaders. Poston is third this week in Strokes Gained: Putting, more than making up for the fact that he’s losing strokes off the tee. The veteran will likely take an aggressive approach in the final round, and if he lands a few darts he could be in position to capitalize on a potential Scheffler falter.

Jon Rahm (+2200): Rahm is back on the board of a major, looking for the third leg of the career Grand Slam after a 4-under 67 in the third round. The Spaniard likely expected to face a deficit of fewer than five shots after he signed his card, and his odds drifted significantly while Scheffler made his back-nine charge. But he has all the shots to be able to chase down the overnight leader, and he won’t shy away from the moment given his major pedigree.

Bryson DeChambeau (+3000): DeChambeau was the betting favorite at one point after birdieing No. 15 to reach 8 under, but a bogey on No. 16 was followed by his worst swing of the day on the par-3 17th. He’ll look to feed off the energy of the crowd and maintains an advantage off the tee over the field, but his late falter combined with Scheffler’s run of circles may prove to be too much to overcome. Should he win, he’ll become the first player to win three majors in the 2020s.

Si Woo Kim (+5500): Poor Kim. He had a front-row seat to some of Scheffler’s dominance at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, playing with him during the first two rounds when Scheffler went 61-63, then was grouped with him Saturday for another clinical performance. The former PLAYERS champ acquitted himself well for much of the third round, but his second-round 64 remains his only subpar performance this week. He’ll need a little more of that magic – and potentially another ace – to make a run at an unexpected major victory.

Alex Noren (+1800): Noren will start the day closest to Scheffler, joining him in the final round while facing a three-shot deficit. But he’s still coming off the injury list, having played last week’s Truist Championship in his first start in nearly six months after enduring a hamstring injury. He rode a hot putter Saturday, finishing second in the field in SG: Putting en route to a 66. Noren has played in a Ryder Cup before but has never won a TOUR event, so it’ll be a tall task to get a watershed win while staring down the best player in the world under the brightest lights in the final round.

Davis Riley (+3500): Riley has been quiet since his victory last year at Colonial, so his spot on this week’s leaderboard comes as a bit of a surprise. He missed the cut last week in Myrtle Beach and only has three top-25s from 14 starts this season. Riley ranks 13th in SG: Approach this week, a far cry from his season rank of 169th on TOUR and a big reason why he’s contending. While the former Alabama standout feels like a longshot, keep in mind: the player he beat en route to winning last year at Colonial was, of course, Scheffler.

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