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Apr 1, 2025

Bolton: Don't be afraid of choosing chalk at Valero Texas Open

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Key stats for making picks at the Valero Texas Open

Key stats for making picks at the Valero Texas Open

    Written by Rob Bolton

    Before we look ahead to the Valero Texas Open, it’s important to review what happened at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, because it was a new experience from which we can learn the next time similar stars align, literally and metaphorically.

    There was something for every gamer at Memorial Park Golf Course. Both Scottie Scheffler (T2) and Rory McIlroy (T5) played well but didn’t win. Meanwhile, Min Woo Lee, who was No. 11 in my Power Rankings, fulfilled his projection as a perfect fit en route to his breakthrough victory on the PGA TOUR. And even though relative notables including Aaron Rai, J.J. Spaun and Max Greyserman missed the cut, the dynamics of others easily covered their losses. It was a rare week when lamenting about what can’t be controlled was at a minimum.

    As it concerns PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore, the new wrinkle of the captain gave gamers in pursuit reason to designate Scheffler or McIlroy instead of holstering the start for one of the three Signature Events or two majors still to come in Segment 2. On cue, Scheffler led the tournament with 113 fantasy points, so the move was worth it. McIlroy tied for eighth with 89, while Lee was third with 104. Sami Välimäki slotted second with 105.

    It’s not often when only two – and the top two, especially – separate themselves from the rest in terms of expectations as much as Scheffler and McIlroy did in Houston, so assigning one as captain was shrewd. Yes, each still needed to execute, but when weighing decisions on the spectrum of all risk-rewards, both were among the safest.

    No such matrix is in play at TPC San Antonio this week, and that’s OK. With the Masters on deck, this is what I’ve always referred to as a position week. In its simplest form, it’s to survive and advance. There’s plenty of chalk in the field for whom you’re unlikely to need more than three starts in Segment 2, so invest freely and confidently in your favorites to contend. The objective is to, at worst, hold serve from your current league ranking. The course already is tough enough so that fantasy scoring will be muted until the FedExCup bonus points are applied to your starters in the final round.

    Captain

    Akshay Bhatia … For how I evaluate potential impact, it’s a coincidence that he’s the defending champion.


    Akshay Bhatia pours in 42-foot birdie putt at THE PLAYERS

    Akshay Bhatia pours in 42-foot birdie putt at THE PLAYERS


    Since his playoff victory here a year ago, he’s evolved into the complete player, so I’m all-in on the decision in a vacuum. At the same time, I can understand why others wouldn’t be as confident in slotting him in this role when Corey Conners is in the same field. Neither is a wrong answer with personal preferences serving as the tiebreaker. I state mine in 3 ... 2 ... 1 ...

    Other considerations

    • Corey Conners ... He’d be my choice if I was the front-runner in my little league of experts. (I’m currently second.) The two-time winner of the tournament is No. 1 in my Power Rankings and in tiptop form upon arrival. He’s no different than the others in the field who are using this week in part as a tune-up for the Masters, but he’s objectively a force at TPC San Antonio.
    • Ludvig Åberg … He’s “all the way down at” No. 7 in the Power Rankings, but no one else presents his kind of bang for the buck if you’re chasing and rationing starts among others for whom it could be argued are in the same bucket. Meanwhile, his relatively sketchy form will scare some, so let it. It’s a timely weapon.


    Rounding out the roster

    Given my objective to bridge to the Masters, it’s more notable who I’m omitting. The dismissed include Hideki Matsuyama (No. 4 in the Power Rankings), Jordan Spieth (No. 10) and Patrick Cantlay (No. 11).

    My starters

    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Keegan Bradley
    • Corey Conners
    • Tommy Fleetwood

    My bench

    • Denny McCarthy (1)
    • Ludvig Åberg (2)

    Careful

    For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

    Rico Hoey ... Although his ownership percentage early on Tuesday was just 0.4, he’s No. 15 in my Power Rankings, so the attention is elevated. Quite simply, he’s proven to lock into a groove and stay there for a while, so a T11 in Houston likely isn’t a one-off. And with a T14 in his only appearance at TPC San Antonio last year, he’s casually on the short list of those with converging trends. But because there are so many others among the more popular who’ve earned faith, consider him more in DFS.

    Sam Burns ... He last appeared in this space in his last start at the Valspar Championship and missed the cut. In fact, he went just 1-for-3 on the Florida Swing with only two of his eight rounds at par or better. Also hasn’t appeared at TPC San Antonio since 2021. While he also missed that cut, it was a long time ago relative to his career trajectory, but that he’s elected to return signals that he’s eager to find something ahead of the Masters. Let him go it alone.

    Tom Kim ... This also is a repeat appearance in this space, and also after a warning at the Valspar. (He settled for but a T36, yet it’s his second-best finish in eight starts this season.) In response to inquiries, I had opined that his obligation to the TGL may have been having an effect on his ability to settle into competition on the PGA TOUR. While he’s enjoyed wild success, he’s still only 22 years of age, so he’s still years from his fully former self as a touring professional. Continue to respect the pressures of that curve.

    Charley Hoffman ... Every time this tournament rolls around, he’s always the first name on the short list of considerations for the Power Rankings. With a win (2016), three seconds and a T3 among nine top 15s from 2010-2021, he’s been a monster at TPC San Antonio and the tournament’s all-time earnings leader. However, now 48 years of age, he’s lost life on his fastball by going MC-T22-T69 in the last three editions, so resort to plugging him in for aggressive plays in DFS and consider for top-30 and top-40 finishes.

    Returning to competition

    Carson Young ... After spending the last two weeks focusing on the birth of his first child, this week’s experience will be replete with congratulatory handshakes and solid sack time. With an 0-for-2 record at TPC San Antonio and perhaps needing a rep or two to get back into the groove, it’s a good week to lay off. Instead, target his opponent in head-to-head matchups where available.

    Notable W/Ds

    Michael Kim ... Once he secured his spot in the Masters via the latest Official World Golf Ranking, it was a surprise to no one that he decommitted from Valero; sits 12th in the FedExCup thanks to a torrid five-week stretch into early March.

    Taylor Moore ... Evidently not ready to give it a go after a sore rib bounced him just before last week’s intent in Houston. He didn’t qualify for the Masters, so he’ll have at least three weeks off; currently 63rd in the FedExCup.

    Taylor Montgomery ... Technically not a withdrawal but a demotion. In what was the last start on his Major Medical Extension in Houston, he missed the cut and fell short of his target to retain status. The good news is that he’ll play on conditional status at worst for the remainder of the season, so he remains eligible for the FedExCup Playoffs. With fields expanding to accommodate his category post-Masters, he won’t miss much playing time and remains a worthy midseason pickup in full-season formats where available.

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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