There might be 262 more days until the 2024 major season kicks off at Augusta National with the Masters Tournament, but that hasn’t stopped oddsmakers from framing markets for all four of 2024’s major championships.

While most outright markets for PGA TOUR events are posted during tournament week, the odds for some of golf’s biggest events can linger on the shelf for months. It means that, just as the top players had both conservative and aggressive options standing on the 18th tee last week at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, bettors have some strategy choices within the futures markets.

And it is here where the risk-reward element of golf betting shines brightly.

The obvious and more conservative thought is – how would we know who is going to play well over six months from now – or if they’re going to even be in any sort of form leading into the majors? And as such, why would now be a good time to consider futures bets?

It’s a sensible thought. Form in golf can certainly be temporary and even the greatest players can have slumps… just ask Justin Thomas. And what about injuries? We virtually haven’t seen Will Zalatoris this season thanks to a back injury suffered during last year’s FedExCup Playoffs.

But now, consider the more aggressive approach.

Jon Rahm won the 2023 Masters. When the market opened, he was +1200 to win. By the time tournament eve came around Rahm had recent wins on TOUR under his belt and was flying. His price was +900.

Brooks Koepka opened at +3300 to win the PGA Championship, but ye tournament eve at Oak Hill he sat at +2000.

Wyndham Clark opened at +8000 to win the U.S. Open, and was still there ahead of the opening round.

Brian Harman opened at +20000 to win The Open Championship, but as the first round got underway he was +12500.

Notice a pattern? In three of the four majors the opening price for the eventual winner was better odds for the bettor than tournament eve. In the fourth, the price remained the same.

Had you taken the risk on the opening price, your return would have been greater. If you were placing a $100 bet to win you would have picked up $1,200 instead of $900 on Rahm, $3,300 instead of $2,000 on Koepka and $20,000 instead of $12,500 on Harman.

Now a win is a win, and you should never look poorly on one in this business. But it is food for thought all the same.

So, it begs the question: are there some players to look at in these markets who are better odds now than they will likely be next year?

Here are some of the odds (via BetMGM) for the 2024 Masters to be held April 11-14, led by the defending champ:

+750: Jon Rahm
+900: Scottie Scheffler
+1000: Rory McIlroy
+1200: Brooks Koepka
+1400: Jordan Spieth
+1800: Patrick Cantlay
+2000: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas
+2500: Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson
+2800: Cameron Smith
+3300: Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day
+4000: Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler

I’m going to cop some heat for this but for me, two names on the above list jump out as potential value for the tournament at Augusta National. Australians Cameron Smith (+2800) and Jason Day (+3300) are both proven performers at Augusta and have a strong desire for the green jacket.

Day found form at Royal Liverpool and as such becomes a contender for the FedExCup, which could affect his price. He also routinely plays well at the beginning of a season with venues like Torrey Pines on the schedule, not to mention he’s a former PLAYERS champion and could perform at TPC Sawgrass in March before April’s Masters. He has three top 5s at the Masters.

Smith has four top 10s in seven Masters appearances and has the game built for the course. His short game is arguably the best in the world and his “weakness” off the tee is not punished severely at Augusta National. He remains the only player to shoot four rounds in the 60s in a Masters.

You can also be certain Rory McIlroy (+1000) will be in the mix on the odds board. Don’t be surprised if he starts closer to favorite by April.

Conversely, one player not to touch at this stage is Justin Thomas (+2000). In the middle of a massive slump, Thomas will eventually turn things around, but you’d want at least double these odds to consider him.

Now let’s move on to the 2024 PGA Championship set for Valhalla in Kentucky from May 16-19, with Scottie Scheffler the outright favorite:

+750: Scottie Scheffler
+800: Jon Rahm
+1100: Rory McIlroy
+1200: Brooks Koepka
+1800: Patrick Cantlay
+2000: Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele
+2500: Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas
+2800: Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau
+3300: Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa
+4000: Cameron Young, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood

Interestingly Rahm and Scheffler have switched favoritism here from the Masters and you can get better odds on McIlroy also. It might have been back in 2014, but McIlroy won the last PGA Championship held at Valhalla. This +1100 might be the best odds you get on the Ulsterman if you think he can break his major drought.

Guess who was tied for third that week… Rickie Fowler. If you are a believer in Fowler’s recent run of form and return to the winner’s circle, perhaps the +4000 on offer is decent here.

Further examination of the 2014 leaderboard sees the likes of Henrik Stenson (T3), Jim Furyk (T5) and Ernie Els (T7) were in the mix. Ball strikers who kept the ball in play during that swampy week.

One player who fits the ball-striking mold could be Collin Morikawa (+2500). A former champion of the event no less, having won at TPC Harding Park in 2020.

Like the PGA, the U.S. Open heads to the same venue from 2014. Pinehurst Resort hosts on June 13-16:

+750: Scottie Scheffler
+800: Jon Rahm
+1100: Rory McIlroy
+1200: Brooks Koepka
+1800: Patrick Cantlay
+2000: Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele
+2500: Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas
+2800: Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau
+3300: Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa
+4000: Cameron Young, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood

In 2014 Martin Kaymer was a dominant winner, claiming the championship by eight shots. He was a +4000 bet leading into the tournament.

Interestingly, the two players who tied for second were Fowler and Erik Compton. Fowler was a +6000 shot with Compton +100000. A +20000 longshot before the tournament, Brooks Koepka tied for fourth.

Fowler at +4000 here might be a consideration.

But is this the tournament to look at longshots? We are coming off an 80-to-1 Wyndham Clark win after all…

Jason Day (+4000) was T4 in 2014. What about young gun and recent Open Championship runner-up, Tom Kim at +5000? Clark is +5000 to repeat. Keegan Bradley is +10000 – he was T4 at Pinehurst in 2014. Sepp Straka, runner up at the Open last week, is +15000.

Last but not least, the 2024 Open Championship is set for Royal Troon July 18-21, with another new name at the top:

+800: Rory McIlroy
+900: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm
+1800: Cameron Smith
+2000: Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka
+2200: Tommy Fleetwood
+2500: Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth
+2800: Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa
+3500: Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson
+4000: Tom Kim, Max Homa, Cameron Young, Jason Day, Will Zalatoris

The obvious fact right away here is McIlroy is the favorite. Is this the place where +900 on Jon Rahm or Scottie Scheffler represents value? I’d lean to no on Scheffler but would think things through with Rahm.

Ultimately, I lean to no as the extra reward you might get, i.e., +100, maybe +200, isn’t worth the multitude of factors that could change in 12 months.

Back in 2016, Royal Troon hosted a battle between two players as Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson distanced themselves from the crowd. Stenson would eventually win at an ultra-impressive 20 under with Mickelson at 17 under and third-placed J.B. Holmes way back at 6 under.

According to GolfOdds.com, Stenson was a 25-to-1 play pre-tournament at the time. Will we get a chalky winner from the top of the odds boards again, or will we get another Brian Harman?

One man at +2500 worth noting is Tyrrell Hatton. He finished T5 with McIlroy in 2016. Are these the best odds you’ll see on the Englishman? What about the youngest Open runner-up since Seve Ballesteros in Tom Kim at +4000? Or at the same price, Cameron Young who has contended in both of his two Opens so far?

And who might be next year’s Harman? Of those opening at 200 to 1 you have the likes of ball-striker Tom Hoge, or the former champ Stenson. Perhaps you might look to a young outsider like South African Thriston Lawrence? Sahith Theegala is 130 to 1, as is Adrian Meronk. The Hojgaard twins are 100 to 1 (Nicolai) and 130 to 1 (Rasmus), respectively. Straka, a runner-up this year, is also 100 to 1.

And if you are the ultimate risk taker… Tiger Woods is 100 to 1.