Brian Harman can already taste the celebratory liquid he’s set to drink out of the Claret Jug.

The gritty bulldog lefty has put on an absolute clinic through 54 holes to lap the field at Royal Liverpool, surging to 12 under and a dominant five-shot lead.

For a short portion of Saturday’s third round, it appeared nerves might be starting to get to the former University of Georgia star. But after two early bogeys, his sublime ball striking returned and as those trying to chase him down faltered, Harman found his groove.

While Harman has a hand and a half on the jug, the chasing pack will be hoping they can throw caution to the wind and produce some pressure for the leader. But can they actually catch him?

It’s unlikely – but if you pair the fact that Jon Rahm produced an 8-under 63 Saturday with the fact the Open Championship has seen its fair share of collapses over the years… and we can’t quite call it yet.

Who can forget Jean Van de Velde from 1999 at Carnoustie? Paul Lawrie started 10 shots back on that fateful final round which saw Van de Velde surrender his three-shot lead on the 18th tee.

Adam Scott led by four shots with four to play in 2012 only to finish with four straight bogeys to hand the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. Thomas Bjorn felt the wrath of pot bunkers in 2003, losing his two-shot lead late after being unable to escape one.

Of course, the weather could also play its part. Heavy rain is expected overnight with the final round due to have sporadic outbreaks of rain, potentially heavy ones at times. The lead groups are expected to face winds out of the North or Northeast at 12-14 mph with gusts 15-20 mph.

Harman’s closest challenger is Cameron Young (7 under) with Rahm one further back at 6 under.

Viktor Hovland, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka and Antoine Rozner all sit at 5 under, a distant seven shots adrift.

Since 1995, 10 players have led by five or more shots in major championships through 54 holes with eight of them, including the last six in a row, closing it out. Only Van de Velde and Greg Norman (1996 Masters) have fallen from the lofty perch.

Before you make your final betting moves, here are the reasons why the contenders can win the 151st Open Championship at Royal Liverpool – and also why they most likely won’t (unless they are Brian Harman).

BRIAN HARMAN, -12, 1st (-175 to win)

Case For: Clearly, by at least the length of the old racecourse that used to sit on the grounds of Royal Liverpool, Harman has been the best player this week. His work off the tees has been near-immaculate (ranked 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee) but his putter has been absolutely on fire. At +9.27 through three rounds in SG: Putting, Harman has shown the rest how to score on this links course. He’s 4-under on the par 3s, best in the field. Importantly, after a few early nerves on Saturday, Harman was able to center himself and start again, a quality he might need again Sunday.

“It would have been really easy to let the wheels start spinning and really kind of let it get out of control, but I just kind of doubled down on my routine and knew I was hitting it well, even though I hadn't hit any good shots yet,” Harman said. “Staying patient out there is paramount. Sometimes it's a lot harder than others. But really proud of the way that I hung in there.”

Case Against: The only thing that can really stop Harman is Brian Harman. Sleeping on a huge lead in a major brings euphoria and pressure. The good feelings that got you there get tempered by the pressure that comes with expectation to close. Everyone expects the tournament to go his way. But trying to protect a lead can be dangerous. Pot bunkers and internal OB still lurk.

“You'd be foolish not to envision, and I've thought about winning majors for my whole entire life. It's the whole reason I work as hard as I do and why I practice as much as I do and why I sacrifice as much as I do,” Harman said of winning thoughts.

“Tomorrow if that's going to come to fruition for me, it has to be all about the golf. It has to be execution and just staying in the moment.”

CAMERON YOUNG, -7, 2nd (+700 to win)

Case For: As good as Harman has been, when it comes to tee to green play, Young has been better. Young, a runner up at St. Andrews last year, ranks first in the field in SG: Approach and second in SG: Off-the-Tee. If he can steal the honor on the tee box from Harman early and provide pressure via long and accurate tee shots, it might be enough to get the leader thinking.

“You just kind of have to see how the first couple holes play out tomorrow and then you maybe start aiming at things that you might not otherwise,” Young says. “Tomorrow we're going to plan on the same plan of attack as the last few days and kind of see where we are after a few holes.”

Case Against: When it comes to SG: Putting, Young has been below average. He ranks 116th in the field at -1.73. That’s over 10 shots lost to Harman on the greens through the three rounds. “There were a couple short misses in there that are really annoying,” he admitted. Young has missed two putts inside 5-feet and made just two of nine between 5-10 feet. That would have to change dramatically on Sunday.

JON RAHM, -6, 3rd (+700 to win)

Case For: He’s a former world No. 1 and the Masters champion with a proven pedigree in majors. Rahm’s eight birdie efforts on Saturday saw him catapult all the way up to third place after battling to make the cut 24 hours earlier. The 63 was the lowest-ever recorded at Royal Liverpool in the Open. So far this week he ranks 11th in SG: Putting and 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Each time he’s found a pot bunker, he’s successfully scrambled from it. He’s played the par 3s in 2 under, fifth best in the field.

“That's the best round I've played on a links golf course ever,” Rahm admitted. “There's a lot of golf to go. Honestly, I'm just going to enjoy the afternoon with my family, and that's about it. There's nothing to be done. Feel like I've done a lot of good work the past few weeks, and I've done a lot of good work this week, as well, and I've done what I've needed, which is give myself an opportunity.”

Case Against: Six shots are a lot to make up in 18 holes… even for Rahm. His driving accuracy for the week sits at 52.4% (ranked 74th) and you have to figure he will need to almost find every fairway and green to provide the opportunities he will need to induce nerves on the leader. Rahm has made some absolute bombs on the greens at times this week, but he’s also missed four putts inside 5 feet.

“I was frustrated (in the opening two rounds) because of mistakes that I made. That was it. I gave up the shots at major championships that are very costly, and that's mainly it. That's what I was feeling,” Rahm said.

“I knew I was playing better, and I knew my swing and my game felt better than the scores I was shooting. If yesterday's finish isn't an example, right? I'm 2 under, hit the fairway on 18, have a chance to finish 3 under, and make a stupid bogey from 30 yards away. That's just a little example of it. Today was the complete opposite, obviously.”

WILDCARDS: VIKTOR HOVLAND, -5, T4 (+1800 to win), TOMMY FLEETWOOD, -5, T4 (+2200 to win), JASON DAY, -5, T4 (+2800 to win)

Case For: Let’s be frank. It’s going to take a near miracle for these boys to get a real sniff at winning. But we should never say never… just ask Paul Lawrie. All three have finished inside the top five of an Open Championship before and Day is a proven major winner. Fleetwood has the crowd willing him on. Hovland ranks fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee this week, Day ranks seventh in SG: Putting and Fleetwood is inside the top 40 of all major SG categories.

“It really is down to Brian. Take him out of it, two away from the next best contender, so you go out, play well, and shoot the best score of the day, then you know there's one person that's left. That's the way you've just got to look at it,” Fleetwood says.

Case Against: They are seven shots back. Seven. And there are also two very good players between them and Harman to boot. Even a major championship record-shattering 10-under 61 might not be enough!